The Brazilian cement industry ended the third quarter of 2025 with sales of 6.1 million tons in September, a 4.6% increase compared to the same month in 2024. Year-to-date (January to September), sales were positive, reaching 50.3 million tons, a 3.0% increase compared to the same period last year.

Business day sales, a key performance indicator, reached 252,800 tons, a 1.9% decrease compared to September 2024, but the first nine months saw a 3.7% increase.

The sector's performance was marked by the duality between a still-buoyant labor market and the impact of high interest rates, default rates, and high debt.

The unemployment rate reached its lowest level (5.6% in the quarter ending in August), with record highs for the employed population, formal employment, and wage bill (up 1.4%).

Consumer confidence reached its highest level since December 2024, driven by employment and cooling inflation. However, the rise in informality and high levels of debt (48.57% in July 2025) and default rates (78.2 million individuals, or 47.93% of Brazilians) represent a constraint on demand, competing for household income—including the growing popularity of bets.

The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty is felt in the construction sector,2 which became more pessimistic in the third quarter, driven by the decline in confidence in the Land Preparation and Finishing Works segments and by lower demand for contracting services.

The high Selic rate intensifies competition between financial assets and real estate assets. This credit constraint is reflected in the construction sector: launches fell 6.8% in the second quarter of the year, with an even sharper decline in the Minha Casa, Minha Vida program, which fell 15.5% in the same period. As a direct result, the number of units financed by the SBPE for construction fell 55.4% in the year to August 2025 compared to 2024.

 The decline is also reflected in material sales,3 which fell in August 2025, and in the revised growth projection for the end of the year from 2.8% to 1.8%. This adjustment reflects the maintenance of the economy's benchmark interest rate (Selic at 15%) at high levels, which impacts retail and renovation and self-construction projects. Inflation expectations for the year reinforce the need to keep the Selic at a restrictive level, limiting the economy's momentum and, consequently, demand prospects.

The slowdown in economic activity in the second half of the year was also evident in industry confidence,4 which remained stable in September after three months of decline.

Given this uncertain scenario, the cement industry remains focused on leveraging demand through housing and infrastructure. The current projection, in the baseline scenario, points to a 2.0% growth in product consumption in 2025.

In the housing sector, the expansion and updating of MCMV income brackets is expected to raise the government's estimated target of 2 million units between 2023 and 2026. This projection should increase cement consumption by between 2.5 and 3 million tons per year during this period, a crucial step toward mitigating the 6 million-unit housing deficit.

Furthermore, the government's new mortgage credit model and housing renovation program are expected to inject at least R$20 billion into the real estate market, aiming to sustain financing growth in a scenario of limited savings account funding.

Regarding infrastructure, sanitation continues to attract investment. On highways, concrete paving continues to advance as a more durable, sustainable solution, aligned with the Ministry of Transportation's decarbonization guidelines.

Brazil, home to the fourth-largest road network in the world, has only 12.4% paved, highlighting the urgent need for investment in higher-quality solutions. Furthermore, Brazilian states such as Paraná, Santa Catarina, Goiás, and the Federal District have been notable for their significant investments in concrete paving. This solution has been replicated on the streets and avenues of approximately 200 Brazilian municipalities, highlighting benefits such as reduced heat islands and increased luminosity, among others.

COP30 and the strategic role of the Brazilian cement industry

After pioneering the largest and most ambitious decarbonization roadmap in Brazil's basic industry, the Brazilian cement industry is updating its mitigation trajectory through the Net Zero Roadmap, which will be launched during COP30. The initiative was selected from among the 140 panels that will comprise the Brazil Pavilion, out of more than 1,250 projects submitted for evaluation by the Ministry of the Environment.

The new roadmap will focus not only on emissions from the production process, but also on the entire cement life cycle, including its use in the construction industry and the potential of forest removal and nature-based solutions (NbS). The goal is clear: to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.

In a global scenario where sustainability has become a prerequisite for development, the Brazilian industry demonstrates that it is possible to reconcile economic growth, environmental responsibility, and social inclusion. According to data from the Global Cement and Concrete Association (GCCA)—the largest and most comprehensive database of environmental and CO2 indicators for the industrial sector worldwide—the production of one ton of cement on the planet generates, on average, 610 kg of CO2.

Brazil, however, stands out as one of the countries with the lowest carbon intensity in the sector, with 580 kg of CO2 per ton, a direct result of decades of investment in innovation, energy efficiency, and the use of renewable energy and alternative raw materials and fuels. This leadership is the result of a consolidated strategy that focuses on the circular economy and reducing the environmental impact of cement production.

The Brazilian cement industry is a pioneer in the use of additives and byproducts from other production chains, achieving the highest percentages of clinker (the main component of cement) replacement in the world. Furthermore, it has doubled its share of alternative fuels in the last 15 years, exceeding 30% of the energy matrix—second only to the European Union.

Biomass such as rice husks, açaí seeds, wood chips, and urban and industrial waste are now significant sources of energy in the sector, replacing fossil fuels such as petroleum coke. These advances have brought previously established goals forward by five years and demonstrate a genuine commitment to sustainability. This commitment is aligned with the guidelines of the Climate Plan, an instrument of the National Policy on Climate Change (PNMC), with targets through 2035. The industry is working closely with the federal government to define sectoral goals that combine decarbonization with economic growth.

"The cement industry demonstrates resilience by maintaining positive performance, based on a sales recovery that began in 2024. However, the increased uncertainty in the economy creates an environment of caution. Our projections for 2025 reflect this moderation, but the focus on social housing (MCMV) and sustainable infrastructure solutions, such as concrete paving, are crucial vectors that will continue to contribute to consumption and the country's economic, social, and environmental development." Paulo Camillo Penna – President of SNIC